NFL 2005 Super Bowl Prediction

Before I start with an objective analysis and pick, let me get this off my chest.

GO STEELERS!!!!!!!! (I've been trying to find a better terrible towel icon than that, but this is the best I could come up with.)

Now I will be objective. (And if you think I cannot be, note that I have only been wrong once in these playoffs, and that was picking Indy to beat Pittsburgh.) Picking this game is not easy. First off the teams are very well and evenly matched, and are both sound in all aspects of the game. I'm also haunted by my snide comment before the season when I wrote, in giving up on Seattle to do anything, "Which probably means they will go to the Super Bowl."

Seattle is probably better than any team Pittsburgh has played in the playoffs. Yes, that includes the Colts. Certainly, the Colt offense is better, but the Seahawk defense is far better than the Colts', and the offense isn't all that bad. So, overall the Seahawks are the better team. Plus they are more of a true running team than Indy. One can argue the Steelers faced the Bear defense and handled it well. But, then again, the Seahawk defense handled Carolina well in the playoffs whereas the Bear defense got ripped apart. The Colts and Bengals were all about offense, and the Broncos, really, were primarily about defense. None of those opponents were dominant in both, like Seattle.

On the other hand, Seattle's road to the Super Bowl was beating Washington, whose offense set the record for least production in a postseason win in the wild card round, and the Panthers, who were on their fourth string running back most of the game and whose offense was far too dependent on Steve Smith. They haven't faced all that many good teams all year. So they haven't exactly faced a team of Pittsburgh's caliber, either.

So, it's hard to get a feel for either team's chances. Overall, Pittsburgh seems better prepared. They had the tougher regular season schedule and the tougher route through the playoffs. They play in a tougher division and a tougher conference. More importantly, Pittsburgh has been tested frequently in the last two months, from having to win out the season just to make the playoffs to playing the top three seeds in the AFC in the playoffs, whereas Seattle has had only one high caliber opponent in the same timeframe: Carolina. The Steelers are sharper mentally because of their road to the Super Bowl.

It sounds like I will pick my Steelers, doesn't it? There are some catches.

1. The Seahawk offense is clicking on all cylinders, whereas the Steeler running game, the core of their offense, has struggled in the playoffs. They have won on Big Ben's shoulders, but that isn't the offense the Steelers want to run. I don't think they want to put the biggest game of the season squarely on the shoulders of their second year quarterback, no matter how good he has shown himself to be.
   
2. The Steelers have won in the playoffs by bringing constant defensive pressure on the opposing quarterback. I don't know that that will work so well against Seattle. It worked against Kitna because he was a backup and hadn't had the work with the first string offense, nor the time on the field to get up to full speed. It worked against Indy because Manning would not adjust his play to exploit the holes the blitz left open. It worked against Plummer because, frankly, he wasn't good enough to stand in there and play. Hasselbeck is more mature than Plummer and will be more likely to adjust to what Pittsburgh gives him than Manning. If you force Polamalu into pass coverage, where he normally should be as a safety, and away from the blitz, as he has done so much in the playoffs, how much does that take away from the Steeler defense?
3. Being a more run-oriented team than some of Pittsburgh's other opponents, their offensive line is probably tougher. Pass blocking is simpler than run blocking. You basically get in the way of the defender. It's reactive. You don't care where he goes as long as it's not toward your quarterback. Run blocking is more proactive and physical. You not only get in the defender's way, you have to push him back and out of the way to open the hole. Being more physical, they can probably handle the blitz a bit better.
   
4. Coaching. I love Bill Cowher, but one cannot deny the fact that he has struggled throughout his tenure in Pittsburgh in big games. For all the wins and division titles, he's lost four conference title games, and the one Super Bowl he's been to. Holmgren, on the other hand, has won a Super Bowl and is in his third run. Coaches have to raise their game a notch in the post-season just as players do. And, honestly, Cowher hasn't necessarily proven himself there, whereas Holmgren has.

So where does that leave us? I still have to go with Pittsburgh. Both teams are solid on both sides of the ball, both are well coached, both can execute well on the field, and both are equally inexperienced in a game of this magnitude and therefore they are equally likely to be jumpy to start the game. In such an even matchup, the difference will come down to preparation. Because of their respective paths to the Super Bowl, I have to think Pittsburgh has the edge there, and that will make the difference. Prediction: Steelers.

Two weeks ago: 2-0
Playoffs: 9-1
Regular Season: 165-91